What Would Need to Be True
For position 1 (universal archetype):
Cross-cultural evidence that midlife transition appears in non-Western cultures (even without industrialization)
Evidence that people who deny/resist midlife transition still undergo it unconsciously (through symptom, depression, involuntary change)
Theoretical grounding for why consciousness structure requires this passage
For position 2 (culturally constructed):
Evidence that non-Western/pre-industrial cultures show different developmental arcs
Evidence that extended lifespan is necessary for midlife transition to appear
Evidence that cultures without "first half / second half" split show different passage patterns
For position 3 (visibility threshold):
Evidence distinguishing "present but unconscious" from "not actually present"
Evidence that ego-development level predicts whether transition is navigable vs. destructive
Clinical evidence of how stage-level affects midlife passage experience