Steve Jobs said it at Stanford: you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. Butcher built the line into a four-stage framework: DICE. Divergence. Connect. Iterate. Coalesce/Emerge. A helpful framework I find to sort of locate yourself within that journey too because you're going to be somewhere along the spectrum at any point in time.1
DICE is the time-development protocol for navigating the 3C framework over years. The 3C tells you what axes to develop. DICE tells you what stage you're in right now and what work the current stage requires.
DICE is a four-phase career-development model:
Divergence (D) — the early-career collect phase. You're trying many things, working in different environments, accumulating diverse experiences. Pursue the things you're interested in. What is tangentially related to this thing that got me super passionate about it in the first place. The first part of that process is really just collecting all that information.2 You don't yet know what these experiences will combine into. You don't need to. You're collecting dots.
Connect (C/I) — the middle-career synthesis phase. The second part of that journey is connecting those dots is convergence.3 You start to see patterns across the experiences. The advertising work and the software work and the bus-ad work cohere into a perspective on visual communication. The dots aren't separate anymore; they're forming a shape.
Iterate — the refinement phase. You start producing work that expresses the synthesis, and the work itself iterates. Each version sharpens. Audiences respond to some aspects more than others. The synthesis tightens around what resonates.
Emerge (E/Coalesce) — the established phase. The personal monopoly is recognizable. Once you've connected the dots there is even that process of adding to that composition that you figured out over time. So visualize value in in my case it's not a finished product by any means. There is still plenty of dot collection going on but the ability to sort of coalesce those things and package them in stages.4 You haven't stopped collecting dots; you've gained the ability to integrate new dots into the existing emergence.
DICE helps when the writer doesn't know which stage they're in and is therefore applying the wrong protocol. A divergence-stage person trying to synthesize too early produces premature positioning. A connect-stage person still chasing every new opportunity prevents the synthesis. An iterate-stage person who can't let the work become recognizable stays stuck in churn. An emerge-stage person who refuses to keep collecting dots becomes stagnant.
The framework's value is locational. You can't optimize for the next stage if you don't know what stage you're in.
Three mechanisms govern progression:
Divergence requires patience. The dots don't connect yet. The patience to keep collecting without forcing premature synthesis is what enables the synthesis later. Most failed careers exit divergence too early.
Connection requires reflective time. The dots connect during slow reflection on accumulated material, not during active production. The connect stage often requires deliberate stepping back from new collection to integrate what's been collected.
Iteration requires production volume. Once synthesis exists, iteration sharpens it through repeated public deployment. The iteration stage requires shipping work even when imperfect, because audience response is the iteration signal.
Emergence requires sustained recognizability. Once positioned, the work has to remain recognizable across long timescales. Emergence-stage practitioners face the unique risk of becoming a parody of themselves; the discipline is maintaining recognizability while continuing to add depth.
DICE pairs with the 3C framework: 3C names the territory; DICE names the path. DICE also pairs with iterators-beat-perfectionists: the iterate stage is what produces compounding over perfectionism.
The framework gives writers operational clarity about when to do which work. Divergence-stage: read widely, work in varied contexts, don't over-position. Connect-stage: reflect, integrate, write the patterns you're seeing. Iterate-stage: ship daily, listen for signal, sharpen. Emerge-stage: maintain quality, add depth, keep collecting new dots.
Butcher's career maps DICE cleanly:
Divergence (years 1-5): New York advertising agencies, multiple environments, software work, advertising work, bus advertisements. A lot of jobs that I honestly didn't wasn't that passionate about.5
Connect (years 5-7): The synthesis began as Butcher noticed the through-line — visual communication of complex ideas. All these like weird little experiences came together to form this... package of experiences and perspectives.6
Iterate (years 7-9): Visualize Value launched. The aesthetic (thin lines, black-and-white, green accent) iterated through hundreds of pieces. Audience response sharpened what worked.
Emerge (year 9 onward): Visualize Value is recognizable. Butcher continues to collect new dots (NFTs, Web3 — the 2021 workshop was pre-this pivot). The emergence stage is now ongoing-with-additions, not finished-and-static.
Each stage produced different work. Each stage required different patience. The framework's value is making the stage-difference visible.
You're feeling stuck in your career. Sit down with the framework and locate yourself honestly. Are you still collecting dots, or have you been collecting for so long you're stuck in collection without synthesis? Are you synthesizing but not iterating because you're afraid to ship? Are you iterating but not emerging because you keep restarting the brand?
Once located, the next-action is stage-specific. Divergence-stuck: stop collecting more. Start integrating what you have. Connect-stuck: write what you're seeing across your experiences, even if it's rough. Iterate-stuck: commit to a publication schedule for sixty days, regardless of quality. Emerge-stuck: take on one project that doesn't fit the established brand, just to keep adding new dots.
The framework is for periodic check-ins, not daily use. Quarterly revisit. Locate. Adjust.
You'll know you're stuck in divergence when you've been collecting for more than five years without any synthesis emerging. The dots are accumulating without forming a shape. The fix is forced reflection — write the synthesis even when it feels premature. Premature synthesis is correctable; absent synthesis is paralyzing.
You'll know you're stuck in connect when you can articulate the synthesis but never ship work that expresses it. The thinking is happening; the production isn't. The fix is iteration without further synthesis. Ship the rough version.
You'll know you're stuck in iterate when you've shipped hundreds of pieces but no recognizable position has emerged. The iteration is happening but not converging. The fix is usually that one of the 3C axes (often character) is underdeveloped. Address the axis before iterating more.
DICE sits between Karlsson's summoning culture mode (which collapses the four stages into a single body-state) and Whyte's poet's beautiful question (which assumes the synthesis is already present). DICE is most useful for practitioners whose work is in active development; it's less useful for practitioners whose work has already coalesced through other means.
The compound insight: DICE is simultaneously career-development theory (psychology), explore/exploit dynamics (behavioral mechanics), and Butcher's creator-economy specific framework. The polymath read: career navigation is a deeply theorized domain; DICE is one productive framing for internet-attention careers specifically, but the underlying dynamics it tracks are universal.
The Sharpest Implication
If you don't know what stage you're in, you can't do the right work. Locate yourself first. The next-action is stage-specific. Generic productivity advice usually fails because it doesn't match the stage's actual requirements.
Generative Questions